The trend of increased sales of heat pump water heaters already observed in 2011 is set to continue in the long term, according to a presentation titled ‘The European Market for heat pumps: Heat Pump Outlook 2012’ provided by Thomas Nowak, Secretary General, European Heat Pump Association (EHPA). Sanitary hot water heat pumps provide an opportunity to integrate renewable energy sources (RES) in buildings. This trend is already notable in some countries such as France, while it is set to increase as more and more governments are expected to adopt building regulations that encompass RES requirements.

The market potential for sanitary hot water heat pumps in France was also underlined by a presentation titled ‘HVAC 2030 - the future of the European heating market’ provided by BSRIA that looked at 2020/30 heating technologies market projections in selected countries. According to Krystyna Dawson, Senior Market Research Consultant at BSRIA, the winning system type in the new build segment in 2020 in France is expected to be a combination of a gas boiler and a sanitary hot water heat pump. Heat pump water heaters will play a key role also in France’s existing buildings segment, where heat pump sales are projected to account for about 17% of the total French heating technologies market in 2020 up from a 9% share in 2010.

2011 statistics: European heat pump sales growth turn from “-“ to “+”

In his presentation, Thomas Nowak provided a glimpse of the association’s upcoming ‘Heat Pump Outlook 2012’ that includes 2011 statistics on the European market for heat pumps.

After two years of negative growth, heat pump sales in 2011 in the 20 European countries for which data is available grew by +3% (-13.8% in 2009 and -3% in 2010). “Even big markets are back on the growth path”, said Nowak. Italy, France and Sweden lead the way in terms of absolute numbers of heat pump unit sales in 2011.

2011 statistics: about 48,000 hot water heat pumps sold in Europe

Nowak noted a strong trend towards air source products and air-to-water heat pumps in particular, as well as the trend towards sanitary hot water heat pumps, the sales of which have compared to 2010 levels near to doubled in 2011, amounting to about 48,000 units.

Other trends and future expectations highlighted by the presenter included:

• Increasing number of boiler manufacturers offer or at least look into heat pumps, especially air-to-water: this was for example evident at the Mostra Convegno Expocomfort expo in March 2012 in Milan
• Hybrid solutions and integration of heat pumps in these solutions
• Refrigerants: Developments on low GWP/natural refrigerant based heat pumps will be an interesting discussion for the future
• Improved interfaces: ease of use, internet, display of performance, smart grid ready
• More focus on industrial and commercial units, with possible opportunities for the application of “polyvalent units” providing parallel heating/cooling in Southern Europe

2020 heat pump projections for new build and existing buildings

The presentation by BSRIA looked at current (2010) and expected winning system types in new build or existing buildings in 2020.

Looking at the four big heating technology markets of Germany, France, the UK and Italy, BSRIA expects that in 2020 heat pumps will form part of the winning system types in new builds:

• Stand alone heat pumps in Germany and the UK: stand alone heat pumps with heat recovery are expected to be the ‘winning’ system type in new build applications in Germany and the UK.

• Hybrid systems in France and Italy: In France, the winning system type in new build in 2020 is expected to be a combination of a gas boiler and a sanitary hot water heat pump. In Italy, the winning system is expected to be a combination of a gas boiler and a heat pump (cond.)

Regarding the share of heat pump sales in overall heating technologies sales for application in existing buildings, the presenter noted the following expectations:

• Germany: heat pump share is expected to grow from 3% in 2010 to 9% in 2020, while in the same period the share of boilers is expected to decrease from 84% to about 57%

• France: heat pump share is expected to grow from 9% in 2010 to 17% in 2020 while in the same period the share of boilers is expected to decrease from 82% to about 67%

• UK: heat pump share is expected to grow from about 0% in 2010 to 3% in 2020, while thanks to their very competitive prices boilers are expected to keep the lion’s share and amount for 95% of the market in 2020, down from 99% in 2010