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Study predicts climate zones to disappear |
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Global Warming could re-make the world's climate zones by 2100, with some disappearing altogether and formerly unknown ones emerging, according to a new study. In a business-as-usual scenario, this would wipe out numerous species.
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2007-03-28
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By the end of this century between 12 and 39% of the earth's land surface will have climate zones currently not known and on another 10-48% present climate zones will have disappeared altogether. This will significantly increase the extinction's risk of certain species unable to move to their preferred climate range, such as polar bears or ring seals.
These are key results from a recent study by the University of Wisconsin predicting the effects of global warming on local and regional climates. The study also assumes that under a more environmentally friendly scenario the disappearance of climate zones could be limited to 4-20% of the earth's surface.
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Results
More specifically, the study predicts:
- the creation of "novel" climates that would be strongly concentrated in tropical and subtropical regions, such as in the Amazonian rainforest, the south-eastern United States, or on the Arabian Peninsula,
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- the disappearance of complete climate zones mainly from tropical mountains and near the poles, such as in the tropical Andes, Siberia, southern Australia and Africa, parts of the Himalaya and the Arctic, as well as
- the extinction of species especially in tropical regions, as they might not be able to adapt as quickly as others.
Former studies had suggested that the ranges of species are already shifting towards the poles at around six kilometres a decade, and that in a worst-case scenario up to 37% of all species could be driven extinct between now and 2050. This would translate to a loss of more than 1 million species.
Reactions
"What we've shown is these climates disappear, not just regionally, but they're disappearing from the global set of climates, and the species that live in these climates really have nowhere to go as the system changes," said Jack Williams, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
"From an ecological perspective, with disappearing climates, there is no real way to put a positive spin on it," the geographer added.
Background
In February, a panel of 1,200 international scientists had found with a 90% probability that climate change is man-made. The resulting report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) served as a basis for the current study.
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More information:
› Abstract "Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD"
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