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Emerging Asia, to triple emissions by 2030 |
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CO2 emissions from transport will drastically increase in China and India within the next 25 years, according to a new study backed by the Asian Development Bank.
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2006-12-15
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Under a business-as-usual scenario, the carbon dioxide emissions from on-road transport are expected to rise by 3.4 times for China and 5.8 times for India over the next 30 years, compared to 2005. Emissions from vehicles will by then have seriously reduced "the ability to move people and goods in an effective manner"… and will severely constrain "the future economic advancement of Asian cities and economies."
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These are main conclusions from the report "Energy Efficiency and Climate Change: Considerations for On-Road Transport in Asia", launched by the Asian Development Bank at an environmental meeting this week.
The report asks the transport industry to take into account energy efficiency and climate change implications in their business activities. The document and its attached Action Plan welcome the following measures:
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- Use of advanced air conditioning technology, e.g. employing CO2 as a refrigerant
- Use of new vehicle technologies to improve greenhouse gas emissions, and phase out of high global warming substances
- Implementation of harmonized fuel efficiency standards for new vehicles throughout emerging Asia for all forms of motorized transport
Other report findings
- By 2035 the total fuel consumption of on road vehicles in China is expected to grow 3.5 times while for India the fuel consumption will be over 6 times that in 2005.
- By 2035 the number of cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) in China could grow by as much as 15 times the present level to 193 million vehicles, and in India by as much as 13 times to 80 million vehicles.
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that these developments could lead to "as many as 537,000 premature deaths each year."
Reactions
"We're not only seeing increases in pollutant emissions. We're seeing huge increases in fuel consumption which is coupled tightly with (carbon dioxide) emissions… It's costing cities and countries ever increasing amounts of foreign exchange with the high oil prices that we've got," said Lew Fulton, a transport expert with the UN Environmental Programme, on occasion of the report's launch.
Background
The new study, prepared under the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities, presents one of the first detailed analyses of the link between transport and climate change in Asia.
From 1990 to 2002, the combined CO2-equivalent emissions from the transport sector in emerging Asia grew faster than in developed economies going from 6% to 17% of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) total in only 12 years.
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More information:
 ADB Report: "Energy Efficiency & Climate Change ... " (407 KB)
* Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities
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